The Coming Transformation and the Fear of the New

Almost every year, a new disease will appear that causes widespread panic within the United States and/or throughout the world. In recent years, these have included SARS, West Nile Virus, Mad Cow Disease, and so-called Swine Flu. But even in the worst of these cases, the death toll has been relatively small compared to the many plagues and diseases of the past and present. Malaria, tuberculosis, dysentery, pneumonia, and conventional flu kill far more people each year than these new upstarts. But for some reason, these new ways of getting killed are scarier than the more traditional causes of death. Apparently, new death scares us more than old death. Some of this fear makes a certain amount of sense. When a disease is new, the ultimate effects of it are less predictable than those older diseases that have been killing a consistent number of people for many years. These fears, however, also represent a more general fear of the new that seems to be an inherent part of our nature.

In the late nineteenth century, the United States experienced startling economic changes. What had traditionally been a mostly agrarian, small-town society was rapidly transforming into an urban, industrial, trade-based society. These changes brought many benefits, but they also created unprecedented problems. Many neighborhoods of these giant cities were crowded, crime-infested, polluted cesspools inhabited by people working in terrible conditions, with many others unable to find any work at all. Small businessmen and craftsmen struggled to adapt to a country that was being taken over by large corporations. Farmers found themselves in a country that no longer needed as many farmers. And when the economy periodically crashed every 15-20 years, all of these problems became even more extreme, particularly as a growing number of Americans became integrated into this new, complex trade-oriented society.

Today, all of the problems just listed still exist to a certain degree in the United States. In many ways, however, the situation has improved. When large cities first appeared, social and political systems that had evolved in traditional small-towns could not cope with the unprecedented size and scope of the modern city. But over time, systems for dealing more effectively with crime, sewage, garbage, fires, homelessness, poverty and other urban day-to-day concerns evolved, and after decades of practice, urban life in the United States has gotten significantly better. Government regulations also brought some improvement in work conditions, housing, and air/water quality. General technological innovations of various kinds increased economic productivity and created new industries, making it possible for society to sustain a larger middle-class than ever before.

The problems, however, still remain. But people in the United States today, unlike those of the late 19^th century, have never known anything but a modern, industrial society. So we take for granted the existence of large cities, huge corporations, and an economic system in which hardly anyone is a farmer or craftsman. In the late 19^th century, however, these phenomena that to us seem perfectly natural represented a radical change. And because these changes and corresponding problems were new, they generated much more fear than they do now. Many, therefore, preferred to hang on to the more traditional ways of doing things. This technological transformation, however, could not be stopped, which is fine with most of us today. Few of us, after all, would want to go back to a world without all of our modern conveniences, even if we have to deal with the seemingly inevitable, negative byproducts of our modern society.

Many people believe that we are at the cusp of an economic transformation comparable to the industrial revolution. As automation and various forms of artificial intelligence are developed and improved, workers in many industries will become obsolete. And as systems of communication continue to advance rapidly, radical changes may take place in how people produce and receive information and entertainment. Instead of a world of news produced for the masses and national television networks, we will become a world of on-demand content appealing to every individual taste. In the long run, these technological changes will improve the standard of living of Americans to a degree even greater than the industrial revolution, with unprecedented levels of economic productivity and less of a need for jobs involving manual labor and mind-numbing drudgery.

This transformation, however, could be painful as many people struggle to adapt, preferring to hold on the only ways of life that they have ever known. The fear of the new, just as it did in the late 19^th century, could lead to some intense political showdowns between those holding on to the more familiar ways of life versus those effectively riding the wave of change. It will likely be a bumpy ride, and we will need people of vision in the private and public sectors to help lead us as smoothly as possible to the potential Promised Land. And discussions regarding economic and political issues will need to move beyond the generic, ideological, partisan arguments that stifle rational, innovative, coordinated action.

Change is inevitable. As in the past, each of us can either adapt or risk the possibility of being swept aside. And the first step is to fight off our instinctive fear of anything that is new.

For more detailed articles regarding the oncoming economic transformation, click on the link below. It will take you to a site called "The Future 101":